This week, More in Common published a report on ‘Britons and Gender Identity’, which combined surveys of 5000 people with 20 focus group findings that explored the British public’s views on what could be crudely termed the ‘trans issue’.
More in Common (a think tank set up in 2017 in memory of Jo Cox MP) has previously used research to break down British society into seven broad segments of people based on values. The overall findings of this report have therefore been further analysed along these segments as well as by generational group. I won’t list them (you can read the report or take the test on the website yourself if you wish), but I am going to briefly highlight one particular segment – the ‘progressive activists’.
Comprising around 13% of the population, progressive activists are broadly defined as highly educated, politically engaged, cosmopolitan in outlook, and motivated to “fight inequality and injustice”. I’m sure it will also amuse some to know that they’re also described as the least authoritarian of the seven groups.
Here’s what the report says about their views on gender identity:
So much for the hateful, right-wing transphobes narrative…
Full disclosure, having done the test, I’m a progressive activist millennial.
If you’re reading this, you’ll likely already know what the report said more or less – but to summarise: overall, the British public is tolerant and accepting and does not hate trans people, but generally doesn’t agree that they should be treated as the opposite sex in all circumstances. They effectively hold the same moderate and nuanced views on sex and gender that have been expressed for many years by gender critical feminists (the ones who have been smeared, abused, silenced, sacked from jobs… those gender critical feminists).
The report’s publishers obscure the findings somewhat with spin (conscious or otherwise) – the lead author Luke Tryl (a former Stonewall employee with pronouns in his Twitter bio) headlines a Guardian article about the report with “Forget toxic Twitter debates: the UK isn’t as divided on trans rights as you think”, describing the online debate as appearing to be a division “between the trans allies and the transphobes”. Another article by a Guardian journalist is particularly desperate in its framing (what on earth has happened to that newspaper?). Even Nancy Kelley, Stonewall’s CEO, tweeted supportively of the report – despite its findings completely undermining pretty much every single one of Stonewall’s policy demands. Let’s take a look:
The More in Common findings
On single-sex spaces, only 24% of respondents thought that trans women who had not undergone surgery should be allowed to use women’s changing rooms and 29% for toilets. Even in the two groups where support was significantly higher than the average – Gen Z (under 25s) and progressive activists – support for non-surgical transitioners using women’s toilets was still only just over 50%.
A clear majority (57%) of respondents thought that female sports should be for females only. Only 19% thought that trans women should be allowed to compete in women’s sports.
There was also very little support for hormone blockers before 16 years of age (23%), cross-sex hormones (17%) and gender reassignment surgery (10%). More than half of respondents believed there should not be any sort of medical transition allowed at all for under 18s – and within that, a significant minority (28%) believed that surgery should only be available to those aged 21 and over. And bear the small print in mind, as the graphic below states “Don’t know scores excluded” – if you include them, the level of support for hormone blockers, cross-sex hormones or gender reassignment surgery in children and adolescents is even lower.
Even with the simplistic definitions in the question (and for hormone blockers, definitely misleading), public attitudes towards childhood transition can be best summarised as cautious. The report notes that the focus group participants did not seem to be aware of the Kiera Bell case or the concerns raised about the Tavistock gender identity clinic but “there was an instinctive reaction against allowing a child to make irreversible decisions without proper and impartial medical assessment.”
As More in Common and The Guardian both put it – more agreed than disagreed with the statement “a trans woman is a woman” (and likewise for men). It could of course be equally said that fewer than half of the British public think that a “trans woman is a woman”, but it’s not what they went with. What the report does acknowledge though is that such a vaguely defined statement is open to interpretation. And as the lead report author states in the tweet below – it was clear that most focus group participants considered being trans to have something to do with surgery, rather than self-ID.
It is evident though that many of those who say they believe that trans women are women and trans men are men don’t really believe it in a literal sense. Because if 46% of Britons actually thought trans women were women, then 46% would also believe they should play women’s sports and undress in women’s changing rooms. And as we know that isn’t the case.
What Liberal Democrat voters think
Bear in mind the lack of definition given in the question and what Lib Dem party policy officially is when you read this. Exactly half of Liberal Democrat voters agreed with the statement “a transgender woman is a woman” (only 28% of them said they ‘strongly agreed’). 20% (so 1 in 5) disagreed. The other 30% did not know.
By 48% to 22%, Liberal Democrat voters opposed allowing trans women to compete in women’s sporting events. Only 24% thought that a trans woman who had not undergone surgery should be allowed to use women’s changing rooms (exactly the same as the general public). 33% thought the same about toilets.
With the don’t knows included – only 19% of Lib Dem voters thought that hormone blockers should be allowed for children under 16. Of those who thought 16 should be the minimum age (19%), more than half thought it should only be allowed with parental consent. The figures for a minimum age of 18, 21 or never combined were 33% and were 38% for cross-sex hormones (if you exclude don’t knows in the same way as the More in Common graph, for puberty blockers the combined figure jumps from 33% to 46%, and for cross-sex hormones to more than 50%).
So it seems that either a lot of our own voters disagree with our policies, in which case we at the very least need to stop allowing some of our members to smear, abuse and silence anybody who dissents; or that a lot of our voters don’t actually know what our policies are, in which case we might want to start worrying about what will happen when they do find out.
The More in Common findings are nothing new. Indeed, they echo near enough every single public opinion poll undertaken in the last few years. I collated many of these in a previous article but I think it’s worth going through them again here.
There is very limited public support for self-ID or the erosion of women’s spaces
The claim from trans activists is that the public is supportive of Self-ID and that only a small minority are against it. The first three questions of the 2020 YouGov polling below are most frequently referenced.
However, look at the other questions which show a dramatic collapse in voter acceptance once the detail of what they’re being asked to accept is made explicit to them. This is clearly visible in the data on ‘process’, with just 16% actively supporting Self-ID – also note the drop in support for trans women using women’s changing rooms and toilets if specified that the person in question has not had gender reassignment surgery.
The thing is – when polls only ask extremely ambiguous questions, such as ‘Do you think a person should be able to self-identify as a gender different to one they were born in?’, most respondents tend to think what they’re being asked is a vague ‘is it okay for someone to’ moral question, not a question about legal status. It’s clear also, that most are also thinking of fully transitioned transsexuals when they answer.
It’s not the only YouGov poll to show this – Pink News also commissioned one in 2018, but didn’t get the answer they wanted so buried it and have since stopped asking the question. “Do you think a person should or should not have to obtain a doctor’s approval to change their legal gender on official documentation (e.g. birth certificate, passport)?” – 58% said they should have to, 18% said they shouldn’t, and 23% said they didn’t know.
Another 2018 YouGov poll found that 65% of respondents thought a person should have to obtain a doctor’s approval to change their legal gender (14% thought they should not have to).
A Populus poll commissioned by Fair Play For Women in 2018 asked the following directly worded questions: “We would now like you to think about a person who was born male and has male genitalia but who identifies as a woman. In your own personal view would you consider this person to be a woman or a man?” 52% said they would consider the person to be a man, against 19% who would consider them to be a woman. When asked, “Do you think someone who identifies as a woman but was born male and still has male genitalia should or should not be free to use female changing rooms where women and girls are undressing/showering?” – 59% said no, just 14% said yes.
A 2018 Panelbase poll on behalf of Wings Over Scotland asked the following question: “A new government review of the Gender Recognition Act 2004 has proposed that people should in future be allowed to legally decide which sex they are simply by self-definition. Broadly speaking, what is your view of this proposal?” – 55% said it was a bad idea, 19% said a good idea, and 26% said don’t know.
A second Panelbase poll by Wings over Scotland in 2020, with some very direct questions, found that 85% of respondents (when the don’t knows were excluded) did not think that “someone who identifies as a woman, but was born male and still has male genitalia, should be allowed to use female changing rooms where women and girls are undressing/showering even if those women object”. And 72% of respondents thought that a ‘woman’ was best defined as “an adult human female, with xx chromosomes and female genitalia”, rather than “anyone who says they are, regardless of biology.”
A poll by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman in February 2021 found that just 37% of Scots backed the general principle of GRA reform, with 26% against and the rest unable to give an opinion. The poll was spun as a win for the SNP position, but I’m not sure why – that’s not even close to majority support, even with the policy only vaguely defined in the question as a ‘streamlining’ process.
A UK poll by YouGov in 2021, focusing on Red Wall voter attitudes to various social issues, found that 35% agreed that transgender women should be allowed to use female changing rooms, versus 28% who disagreed with the position (36% either did not know or did not support either suggestion). These results were almost identical to those of the wider British public. And again, that’s without the question providing any definition of ‘transgender women’.
A Panelbase poll for the Scot goes Pop pro-independence blog in October 2021, with very detailed wording and a four-option format (plus don’t know) found that just 20% of people in Scotland support self-ID – and that increases to just 25% once the don’t knows are stripped out. Only 29% of SNP voters expressed support for self-ID and rather amusingly, just 4% of Liberal Democrat voters (though admittedly, their sample was small).
In a Panelbase poll for The Sunday Times in September 2021, just 13% of respondents thought that reforming the Gender Recognition Act should be a priority for the Scottish Government. It came bottom in a list of 11 priorities (the next lowest scored 25%) – ‘Achieving Strong Economic Growth’ was top at 68%.
A Survation poll on behalf of MurrayBlackburnMackenzie in December 2021 found that 53% thought that a doctor’s approval should be needed in order for a person to have their gender legally recognised as different to their biological sex – just 27% disagreed. Again, rather amusingly, Liberal Democrat voters were found to be the least likely to support self-ID, with just 8% in favour.
A Savanta ComRes poll for the BBC in February 2022, in contrast to previous polls, found 40% of respondents in Scotland in favour of Self-ID (defined as removing the requirement for a diagnosis of gender dysphoria) with 38% against. However, answers to further questions provided something of a contradiction – 61% agreed that it is important for legislation to continue to provide for single-sex spaces (10% disagreed) and just 28% thought that trans women who hadn’t undergone surgery should be able to use women’s public toilets and changing rooms. Also suggesting an awareness of the importance of sex is that 54% agreed that transgender people should disclose to potential sexual partners their sex registered at birth (with 18% against). Similar to the More In Common research findings, 67% said that they had not been following the debate closely.
In 2022, almost 60% of the 10,000+ respondents to a Scottish Parliament consultation on introducing self-ID said that they disagreed with “the overall purpose of the bill” – just 38% agreed. More than 60% supported the requirement for “a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria or supporting documentation” and a similar majority said the minimum age for gender recognition certificate applicants should not be reduced from 18 to 16. What’s also interesting is that only around 25% of respondents said they did not “anticipate any negative impacts” from the bill – around 65% said they did and around 10% did not know – suggesting that some people support self-ID but aren’t sure about the consequences (either that or they don’t care).
So that’s 13 examples in the last few years of the British public being asked about self-ID and/or single-sex spaces. Not a single one shows significant public support for self-ID or for the removal of female-only spaces.
And in Ireland, which introduced self-ID in 2015, passing the bill alongside same-sex marriage, a poll conducted by RedC Research for The Countess in July 2021 found that just 17% of respondents actually agreed with the law as it currently stands – that a person should be allowed to change their birth certificate as soon as they self-identify as the opposite sex. The poll also found that 77% agreed that people should have the right to request that intimate medical examinations are carried out by a person of the same birth sex; 62% said public buildings such as schools and banks should have to provide single-sex toilets and 64% said the same about hospital wards.
The Public overwhelmingly supports fair competition in women’s sports
A ComRes poll for The Telegraph in 2019 found that 63% agreed that “Martina Navratilova was right to say that it is cheating for transgender women who were born male to compete in women’s sports events”. Just 12% disagreed.
YouGov’s 2020 poll found that by an almost 3-1 margin (55%-20%), the public did not support allowing transgender women to participate in women’s sporting events.
The 2021 Panelbase poll for the Scot goes Pop blog also found that by a margin of 57% – 19%, respondents thought that “Athletes who have legally changed their gender from male to female should be excluded from women’s sporting events.”
An Ipsos Mori poll in 2021 found that “A majority of Britons support having openly lesbian, gay and bisexual athletes, however, only a quarter (24%) support transgender athletes competing based on the gender they identify with rather than the sex they were assigned at birth.”
It’s not just public attitudes either – after an independent consultation which included interviews and surveys with respondents from 54 sports and 175 organisations, the UK’s Sports Council Equality Group published a report on transgender inclusion in domestic sport in 2021. It concluded that for many sports, the inclusion of transgender people, fairness and safety could not co-exist in a single competitive model.
The report also included this choice quote:
“Several current female athletes suggested that although all or most athletes considered transgender athletes have an advantage if they compete in women’s sport, almost no-one would be brave enough to discuss this in public… Other athletes said that they had been warned not to discuss the topic by their NGB and had been threatened with sanctions such as non-selection if they disobeyed.”
In 2021, World Rugby became the first international sporting federation to state that transgender women could not compete at the elite level of the women’s game on safety grounds. In 2020, they asked 65 elite players from the UK if they thought trans women should be eligible for the female game. The vast majority (64%) said no. Less than 10% agreed with inclusion. 66% believed the average difference in strength between men and women to be more than 15% (the highest available option). Only 4 players believed the average difference to be less than 10% and not a single one believed there was no difference in strength.
It’s worth pointing out that these attitudes aren’t limited to the UK – World Rugby also surveyed 88 elite players from the Women’s World Seven Series (from the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand as well as the UK). Again, very few were in favour (19%) but there were only slightly fewer unsure (37%) than outright opposed (44%). Yet, the results of the average difference in strength question were near identical to the UK survey.
Likewise for public opinion. The 2021 RedC Research poll for The Countess in Ireland found that 55% of respondents were opposed to trans women competing in women’s sports and just 21% were in favour.
Even in the USA, where feelings on transgenderism are more entrenched along political lines, a joint poll by The Washington Post and The University of Maryland in 2022 found that 55% of respondents opposed transgender women and girls being allowed to compete against biological females in high school sports – this number grew to 58% when asked about college and professional sports. Only 30% believed that transgender women and girls should be allowed to compete at any level in female sports – and 68% of all respondents, regardless of opinion on whether they should compete, thought that transgender girls would have a competitive advantage over biological girls in youth sports.
An earlier 2022 Gallup poll – as part of their annual values and beliefs survey of the American public – found that 62% of respondents (against 34%) thought that transgender athletes should play on teams that matched their birth sex rather than their gender identity.
The public is cautious about social or medical transition for children
In the 2021 Ipsos Mori poll (referred to in the previous section), in response to the statement, “Children should be encouraged from an early age to live out the gender they feel most comfortable with” – 37% agreed, 34% disagreed, and 29% didn’t know – a near three-way split. Due to the ambiguous wording of the question, it’s likely that there were varying interpretations of what respondents thought they were being asked even amongst those who gave answers. I really couldn’t say for sure what the question meant.
Asking a more specific question, a JL Partners poll in May 2021 found that just 13% supported ‘Children being allowed to use puberty blockers and hormone therapy to change their gender.’ 61% were opposed.
The 2022 Savanta ComRes Poll for the BBC found that respondents were opposed to children under 18 being allowed access to puberty blockers (41%-29%) or cross-sex hormones (49%-21%) and opposed to under-16s being allowed to live as the gender they identify with at school without their parents’ consent (43%-28%). By 53%-31%, respondents also opposed reducing the minimum age at which a person could apply for a gender recognition certificate from 18 to 16.
A significant number of people feel unable to have open discussions about transgender issues
The Telegraph’s 2019 ComRes poll found that 40% of 35-44-year-olds felt unable to “express my views about transgender rights in public for fear of being attacked for being a bigot”. 28% of 18-24-year-olds, overwhelmingly the most supportive of ‘trans rights’, also felt the same. This was in a poll that found 62% of people “welcome[d] the move to ensure that transgender people are more widely accepted in society” (just 18% disagreed), so they weren’t polling ‘bigots’.
The New Statesman recently referenced polling by Redfield & Wilton which found that “by 46% to 12%, the public thinks a ‘climate of fear’ is preventing productive discussion” of trans issues. And a ComRes poll commissioned by the Reclaim Party in 2021 found that 42% felt that people were “afraid” to speak their mind in public on trans issues (the figure was fairly consistent amongst voters from all parties).
In 2018, ComRes surveyed 150 MPs for their views on trans issues and found that 54% felt that they could not “speak freely on transgender issues without undue fear of social media attacks or being accused of transphobia”. This included nearly half of Labour MPs. Seeing the way MPs like Rosie Duffield and Joanna Cherry have been treated for daring to express their opinions in the years since then, I’d be curious to see what the figure is now. Interestingly, only 28% of MPs in the survey said they supported self-ID (including just half of Labour and SNP MPs), and 59% believed “the increase in the number of children presenting as transgender is a worrying development that has not been properly explained or discussed yet.”
It’s time for some honesty
Now, just because a majority of people hold an opinion doesn’t mean that the opinion is well-founded. As highlighted in a previous blog, polls also consistently show the public thinks we are too soft on crime and prisons are too easy, yet neither belief is borne out by the facts. There’s often a good showing for bringing back the death penalty in many polls too – though that support tends to drop when more information is provided.
That is of course also the case here. On these issues, the greater the clarification and amount of information provided, the more critical people become. The fact is that most of the public is opposed to self-ID when it is actually explained to them what it means – and support is rarely strong even when it isn’t. Polls also show that an overwhelming majority recognise a distinction between sex and self-identity and support the existence of single-sex spaces and sex-based sporting competition on that basis.
What is also noticeable from all of the above polling is the disproportionate number of people (compared to most issues) who say they ‘don’t know’. The More in Common research was also quite clear in stating that most focus group participants were completely unaware of the debate surrounding childhood transition – the concerns around puberty blockers, gender clinics and detransitioners, or the changed demographics of those who transition – yet their instincts urged caution and their opinions were based largely on common sense.
The More in Common report and Guardian articles refer to the ‘toxicity’ of the online debate around sex and gender. But if they were being honest, they would acknowledge that this toxicity is asymmetrical – the suppression of debate, the smearing of dissenters, the general dishonesty, it’s coming from just one side.
Though not explicitly stated, it is implied that those on the gender critical side of the argument (who are mostly women) are in some way at odds with the “compassionate and respectful” general public. Yet, it’s actually the trans activists who are the outliers – a minority of a ‘progressive activist’ minority; a small number of people who have somehow managed to dominate the discourse within left-leaning media and the policy agendas of political parties, the third sector, and the civil service, despite their lack of genuine public support.
Those that have enabled this are going to have to start being honest.
Males competing in female sporting events; males accessing female changing rooms; young people being given puberty blockers and hormones on demand; self-ID – these are not ‘rights’, they are merely things that some people want.
But not most people – indeed it seems very much like most of the public are actually on team TERF. So let’s start having sensible conversations and let’s start having honest ones – and as the gradual backtrack towards this begins, to those backtrackers I say let’s not pretend that those who’ve long been arguing for this just weren’t ‘compassionate’ or ‘reasonable’ enough for you to listen before.
Democracy Coma 
Leave a Reply