Labour may lead in the polls, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win the next election

Perhaps a bold claim to make at the same time as the MP for Bury South crosses the floor to Labour, senior Conservatives find themselves accused of Islamophobia and blackmail, and Boris Johnson himself gives what might well be the most farcical defence of rule-breaking in political history. But I stand by it.

The Labour party has taken quite a comfortable lead in the polls in the last couple of weeks – not quite 20 points ahead, but still for the most part comfortably ahead (a Survation poll a few days ago did see the lead fall back to just 5 points).

However, what’s interesting if you look at the unweighted figures in some of these polls is that the Labour vote isn’t actually increasing by a significant amount – most of the change is due to a fall in the Conservative vote, and much of it is going to the undecided or wouldn’t vote columns rather than directly to Labour.

It’s also notable that whilst ahead of Boris Johnson in the preferred Prime Minister polling, Keir Starmer is still getting beaten by ‘neither’.

We all know what ‘he broke lockdown’ means, which is why Partygate has cut deep. But will the outrage be long-lasting? It’s hard to say – I mean, it’s not as if Boris Johnson and the Conservative party having little regard for anybody but themselves was some sort of secret before this story broke.

Because the thing is, what exactly does the Labour party have to offer the country? The Tories may be incompetent and corrupt, but ‘we’re not the Tories’ just doesn’t cut it.

Labour still isn’t trusted by many on the economy, they’re seen by many as too focused on identity politics, Starmer still lacks charisma. Their policy approach to the criminal justice system is just as populist and reactionary as the Tories, but it’s still not actually cutting through to the voters it is trying to appeal to. And on the other hand, they’ve still got a significant segment of their party trying to undermine them from the inside – harking back to the days of Corbyn whilst plotting socialist revolution from their iPhones. I’m just not feeling the unified, coherent, positive vision they’d presumably like to be recognised for.

Personally, I don’t want the Tories in power – but the prospect of a Labour government doesn’t excite me either (incidentally, I’m also not overly enamoured with my own party at the moment). I don’t think they’ll be any less authoritarian or any more honest and competent than they were the last time they were in power.

Given the SNP’s continued dominance in Scotland and the many seats, in southern England in particular, where only the Liberal Democrats can mount a serious challenge, I don’t think Labour can get ahead of themselves in thinking they might get an overall majority. With or without Boris, the Tories still have a few years left until the next general election – and that’s plenty of time to turn the polls around. Sure, the cost of living will be a major issue, and the lack of promised benefit from Brexit is going to become ever more apparent – the Tories will lose seats. Maybe a lot of them. But it’s not enough for Labour to simply expect to benefit by default.

If I’m wrong, I’m wrong, but to hell with it – the next general election I think we’ll see a Conservative government – not a Labour one and not some sort of progressive alliance coalition.